Euro settles near two-year highs; outlook bullish

3 hours ago (Jul 24, 2017 17:20)

 

© Reuters. FOREX-Euro settles near two-year highs; outlook bullish

* PMI data helps broader euro zone story; FX eyed

* Bets on a weaker dollar rise to highest since Feb 2013

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2017 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Saikat Chatterjee

LONDON, July 24 (Reuters) - The euro rose to a 23-month high against the dollar on Monday as investors remained bullish after latest business growth data for July pointed to only a mild slowdown, suggesting the euro-zone economy was still growing at a relatively strong clip.

IHS Markit's Euro Zone Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index for July, seen as a good guide to economic growth, fell to 55.8 from June's 56.3, still comfortably above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. data calmed some concerns that the euro's strength this year EUR=EBS has hurt growth prospects in the euro zone.

In a note after the data, Citigroup (NYSE:C) strategists said "the level of the composite PMI remains high and its sub-components, i.e., strong job creation, firms' sustained optimism and solid pace of activity in services, suggest continued resilience of the euro area recovery".

The single currency was trading at $1.16465, slightly below a high of $1.16840 hit earlier in the day, a level last seen in August 2015. It is the best performing pair in the G10 FX space, up more than 10 percent so far this year.

The euro's rise has also not invited criticism from policymakers, prompting some investment banks to come out with bullish calls. JP Morgan, for example, recommends staying long euros and buy short-dated FX calls vs the U.S dollar.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that financing conditions remained broadly supportive, and noted that the euro's appreciation had "received some attention". However, he did not cite that as a problem nor did he directly try to talk the currency down. market positioning also paint a bullish outlook for the euro. One year risk-reversals EUR1YRR=FN on the euro are nearing their highest levels since October 2009.

In contrast, the U.S. dollar has been hit by softening US yields and weak data.

Speculative "short" bets against the U.S. dollar reached the highest since February 2013 NETUSDALL= last week, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.

"A weaker dollar seems to be the path of least resistance given the soft data coming out of the U.S. and the political uncertainty," said Michael Hewson, chief markets strategist at CMC (NS:CMC) Markets in London.

On Monday, the dollar index .DXY , measuring the currency's strength against a basket of other currencies, fell to 93.823, its lowest level since June 2016. It recovered somewhat to be up 0.1 percent on the day at 93.96.

Investigations into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and whether there was collusion with President Donald Trump's campaign are viewed as obstacles to the administration's plans to boost economic growth and a negative for the dollar. expect little relief for the dollar in a week marked by the U.S. Federal Reserve's regular meeting on policy, with the index on track to test the June 2016 lows of 93.451

For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets see reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=http://emea1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonreuters.biz/cms/?pageId=livemarkets

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U.S. dollar wallows near 13-month lows

© Reuters. U.S. dollar wallows near 13-month lows

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar was nursing losses near 13-month lows against a currency basket on Monday, as sentiment on the greenback remained negative amid political uncertainty in Washington.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 93.84 by 10.47 a.m. ET (02.47 p.m. GMT) after touching 93.65 overnight, its lowest since June 22, 2016.

Worries over policy direction from the White House and Capitol Hill since last week’s failed attempt to overhaul healthcare and investigations into alleged links between President Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia in last year’s election have fed into dollar weakness.

The failure to pass healthcare reform has dampened hopes for the passage of Trump’s other legislative efforts, such as overhauling the tax code and implementing fiscal stimulus.

Political developments remained in the spotlight on Monday following reports that Trump was set make a statement on health care at 3:15 p.m. ET.

Hopes for tax reforms and fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration helped drive the dollar to a 14-year high after the November election. The dollar has now given up all of its post-election gains.

Doubts over the Federal Reserve’s plans for a third rate hike this year have also pressured the dollar lower.

The Fed is to hold its next meeting on Wednesday and is widely expected to hold policy steady. Officials may also give some insight into its plans to start normalizing its balance sheet.

The euro was slightly lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD slipping to 1.1638, after touching a 23-month high of 1.1684 earlier.

Demand for the euro was underpinned by expectations that the European Central Bank is moving closer to tapering its bond-buying program.

The euro came off the day’s highs after data pointing to a slowdown in euro area private sector growth at the start of the second half of 2017.

The dollar slid to five-week lows against the yen, with USD/JPY falling to 110.62. it was last at 111.00.

Sterling pushed higher against the greenback, with GBP/USD rising 0.25% to 1.3025.

The Canadian dollar hit fresh 14-month highs, with USD/CAD falling 0.3% to 1.2501.

The loonie was boosted by official data showing that Canadian wholesale trade rose more than expected in May and higher prices for oil, a major Canadian export.

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Weekly FX Crosses Watch (July 24-28, 2017)

By Cyclopip

I’ve got my one good eye on the short-term setups on EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and EUR/GBP to see if nearby inflection points will keep holding. Take a look!

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

The lack of BOJ dovishness kept a lid on EUR/JPY gains as price bounced off the 130.50 minor psychological level to start forming a potential descending triangle.

The pair seems to be setting its sights on the support at the 128.50 minor psychological mark, which previously held as resistance. This also coincides with the bottom WATR and PWL, so there may be plenty of buy orders waiting at that area.

Stochastic is also pulling up from the oversold region to signal that euro bulls are ready to get back in the game soon, possibly spurring another test of the falling trend line connecting the recent highs.

• WO: 129.63


• Top WATR: 130.72


• Bottom WATR: 128.54


• PWH: 130.51


• PWL: 128.57

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

Guppy already broke below the neckline of the double top pattern I was watching, confirming that sellers are ready to push the pair much lower. The chart pattern is around 250 pips in height so the selloff could be of the same size.

Stochastic is climbing out of the oversold area, though, so a retest of the broken support around 145.50 could happen before sellers gain traction. There’s also potential support at the bottom WATR, which is close to the 143.00 major psychological handle.

• WO: 144.42


• Top WATR: 145.88


• Bottom WATR: 142.96


• PWH: 147.61


• PWL: 144.07

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 4-hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP has formed higher lows and higher highs, creating an ascending channel on its 4-hour chart. Price is currently testing the top of the channel near the PWH and could be due for a move back to support.Euro bears could regain the upper hand as stochastic is dipping into overbought territory, potentially taking price down to the bottom of the channel around .8830 or at least halfway there. But if pound bears refuse to back down, EUR/GBP could push past the channel resistance near the .9000 handle and go for a test of the top WATR.

• WO: .8977


• Top WATR: .9048


• Bottom WATR: .8905


• PWH: .8995


• PWL: .8744

This content is strictly for informational purposes only and does not constitute as investment advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Please read our Risk Disclosure to make sure you understand the risks involved.

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FOREX-Dollar falls on perceived ECB path, U.S. political roadblocks

 

© Reuters. FOREX-Dollar falls on perceived ECB path, U.S. political roadblocks

(Updates prices, adds weekly performance data)

* ECB policy meeting seen as supportive for single currency

* Investigations into Russian meddling in U.S. election hurt dollar

* Dollar index touches more than 1-year low

By Sam Forgione

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hit its lowest level in more than a year against a basket of major rivals on Friday a day after the European Central Bank's chief abstained from talking down the euro, while obstacles to U.S. President Donald Trump's policy agenda also weighed.

ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that financing conditions remained broadly supportive, and noted that the euro's appreciation had "received some attention." However, he did not cite that strength as a problem nor did he directly try to talk the currency down. apparent lack of concern about the strengthening euro convinced traders that the central bank remained on track to potentially begin tapering its bond-buying stimulus later this year.

The dollar index touched 93.854 .DXY , its lowest level since June of last year, and was last down about 0.5 percent at 93.885. The euro touched $1.1682 EUR= , its highest level against the dollar in nearly two years, and was last up 0.4 percent on the day at $1.1674.

"The fact that Draghi didn't necessarily argue too much against the strength of the euro ... certainly gave the greenlight for individuals to want to own the currency again or actually add to their positions," said Dean Popplewell, chief currency strategist at Oanda in Toronto.

The euro was last on track to gain 1.8 percent for the week, which would mark its second straight weekly rise against the dollar. The dollar index was set to fall 1.3 percent to mark its second straight weekly decline.

Against the yen, the dollar touched more than four-week low of 111.02 yen JPY= .

In addition to traders' expectations that the ECB was staying the course toward tightening monetary policy, investigations into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. election and possible collusion with Trump's campaign were viewed as obstacles to the administration's pro-growth agenda and negative for the dollar.

"Compounding the (weaker dollar) move is this latest news on the political front in the U.S. about the Russia investigation expanding to Trump's business affairs," said Alvise Marino, FX strategist at Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN) in New York.

"This is on top of the fact that Senate has not been able to pass anything meaningful on the healthcare front," he said in reference to the collapse late on Monday of a Republican effort to overhaul the U.S. healthcare system.

The dollar touched its lowest against the Swiss franc in more than a year at 0.9440 franc CHF= .

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IQOPTION REVIEW : LEGIT OR SCAM

IQ Option Review

IQ Option is a licensed and regulated binary options broker, owned and operation by Iqoption Europe ltd.. They are located at Yiannis Nicolaides Business Center, Agiou Athanasiou Avenue 33, 4102, Agios Athanasios, Limassol, Cyprus.

Their phone number is +44 20 8068 0760. Their email address is: support@iqoption.com.

IQ Option Platform Review

IQ Option is a unique broker using their own custom built binary options trading platform. The platform offers speed trading in increments up to 5 minutes. Their binary options go out 1 hour in 15 minute increments, and they have expiry times as far out as one month. They have more than 500 underlying assets available for trading, with the only commodity they offer being Gold. IQ has mobile trading apps available for both Android and iOS.

A popular feature at IQOption are their weekly trading competitions. Their minimum deposit is only $10, and they offer a free demo account.


*General Risk Warning: The financial services products offered by the company provided by this website carry a high level of risk and can result in the loss of all your funds. You should never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

 

Editor’s Note – Why IQ Option Doesn’t Suck in 50 Words

Finally, after what seems like ages, I find a brokerage that doesn’t look like a carbon copy of every other broker on the market. IQ Option is trying to do something different starting with the website layout, the education and of course the innovative, highly functional, trading platform. They also offer a free Demo and I mean really free, without any of the shenanigans like “Deposit 100 bucks in a real account and we will give you a free demo”. I opened the Demo in about 15 seconds.

 

Why Does IQ Option Suck in 50 Words

I am sorry to say but their expiration times are too limited and I believe this is one of the main issues I have with this broker. Expiry is pretty dynamic, but all purchased options expire by the end of the day at most, so long term traders will feel left out. However, that being said, this is one of the better platforms for short term intra-day traders. Other reasons it may suck is a relatively short asset list and the fact they only have call/put (high/low) style options.

 

 

Should I Open an Account with IQ Option?

Right from the start I can see I am not dealing with the usual Binary Options website that shows me a glamorous girl, a limousine or stacks of money. The first thing you will notice is that the home page is free of cheap marketing tactics and instead show me 3D chart which moves continuously. To be honest that makes me feel like I’ve accessed a trading venue, not an online casino like a lot of the other brokers on the market.

IQ Option entered the marketplace in 2013 and since then they’ve done a great job at differentiating themselves from other brokers. First of all, their platform is proprietary, you won’t find it anywhere else. The biggest advantage is the charts, where Japanese candlestick charts and a a list of many technical indicators like Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI, Stochastic an 7 others can be used. This is a big thumbs up because as we know, usually binary options brokers severely suck when it comes to charting and additional technical tools.

IQ Option Withdrawal

There is no minimum withdrawal amount but the minimum deposit is $10. A transaction will be processed in 24 hours. The money must go to the same source they originated in order to prevent money laundering. Also, before being able to withdraw, clients have to provide identification documents, which is another practice required by anti-money-laundering rules. Further, withdrawals can be made by just about any eWallet on the internet which gives the fastest payouts, within hours of processing unlike CC or wires which could take another 7-10 days.

 

IQ Option Extras

Candlestick charts are considered an extra for binary options brokers even in this day and age. It makes me almost sad to say it, but it’s a fact so they get bonus points for it. Their innovative platform can also be considered an extra feature as are the many tournaments for trading that they offer.

 

IQ Option Ratings

User Friendly 18/20

The website is available in thirteen languages and that is above average but the platform can be a bit hard to get used to, especially for a new trader; however, I don’t think this will be a big problem because it’s pretty intuitive. Everything else on the website is well structured and easy to find. US traders are not accepted. Check the terms and conditions for the full list of countries that are not accepted such as: Australia, Canada and Belgium.

 

Number of assets and expiry times 15/20

They offer up to 500 assets to trade. The expiry times are limited to “Turbo options” (60 sec, 120 sec) and short term (3 min, 5 min, 15 min, 30 min, hourly) with the longest being end of month.

 

Commissions, Support and Effective return 17/20

There are no commissions to use this broker, standard for the industry. There is however a dormant account fee after being inactive for 90 days in a row but the it’s only an annual fee of 50€ but it won’t be higher than your account balance. Support is little iffy, there’s no Live chat, only phone or email which isn’t a problem once you open an account. The effective return for successful trade goes up to 91% which is one of the highest in the industry, and they also have a OTM refund that can be pretty substantial for VIP traders.

 

Deposit, Payment and Bonus 18/20

The minimum deposit is $10 for a Real account. Deposits can be made via credit cards, wire transfers and e-wallets including WebMoney, Skrill and Neteller. Withdrawals can be made through the same methods. Bonus is not longer available due to CySEC new regulations. Withdrawals are processed within 24 hours.

 

Extras 15/20

As I mentioned before, their platform is an extra on its own because it is unique. Just a basic form of technical analysis can be conducted but it’s still much better than what others have to offer and there are 12 of the most popular indicators to use as well. The tournaments are another nice extra as they allow for lots of extra income, for the best traders of course. Lacking some features most major platforms includes.

 

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